2024 NFL Week 9 betting: Buccaneers-Chiefs odds, picks, lines - ESPN

2024 NFL Week 9 betting: Buccaneers-Chiefs odds, picks, lines - ESPN

The final game of Week 9 pits Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri, on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). The Chiefs (7-0) sit atop the AFC standings and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET (+400). Despite Mahomes' shaky play this season, the Chiefs offense has remained a strong suit, leaning on a Kareem Hunt-led rushing attack and a physical defense.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-4) look to bounce back after losing back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons respectively. Tampa Bay enters the matchup with some key players out with injury including Mayfield's top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. As such, the Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites early last week as the line has since moved up a half a point to Chiefs -9. The total for the matchup has remained the same at 45.5 points.

Here is everything you need to know to bet on Buccaneers-Chiefs and Seth Walder's favorite bets for the game.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Spread: Chiefs -9
Money line: Chiefs (-450), Buccaneers (+340)
Over/Under: 45.5

First-half spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Chiefs (-320), Buccaneers (+240)
Buccaneers total points: 26.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Chiefs total points: 20.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-118)

Bolton has a 14% tackle rate -- meaning he records a combined tackle on 14% of his defensive plays -- which is almost exactly average for an off-ball linebacker. Also like most linebackers, Bolton has a much higher tackle rate on opponent designed runs (20%) than opponent dropbacks (11%). And in this case, Bolton should expect to see fewer opponent runs: the Chiefs are 9-point favorites, which means the Bucs will likely be playing from behind and therefore passing frequently. In addition, the Bucs are pass-heavy anyway: Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. My model forecasts 7.5 tackles + assists for Bolton.

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Baker Mayfield total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -155/Under +120)
Mayfield total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +135/Under -170)

Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Bucky Irving total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over Even/Under -130)
Rachaad White total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mahomes total rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Mayfield total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Travis Kelce looks to take the Chiefs on the first ever Threepeat in the Super Bowl Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
Jalen McMillan total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Noah Gray total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -105/Under -120)
Rachaad White total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Bucky Irving total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over +115/Under -145)

Courtesy ESPN Research